Where the Hell Do You Put the Gas Tank?: or, Thinking Clearly About Iraq
War, as William Tecumseh Sherman famously said, is hell. I'll go further - war is intrinsically evil. So far from resenting the opposition to the Iraqi War in concept, I respect it. War as a policy choice in a democratic society should always be regarded with deep, dark suspicion. The notion of dispensable people, 'cannon fodder', eggs for omelets, and all the rest, are almost the touchstone, the authentic signature, of a totalitarian state - whether you can its head king, kaiser, fuhrer, or comrade secretary.
But to state categorically that war is intrinsically evil is not to say that it is intrinsically the greater evil. The bumper sticker cliché that 'war is dangerous to children and other living things' is absolutely true. But peace can be dangerous, too, as the children of Rwanda, of Cambodia, of Bosnia, of pre-World War II Europe, of Bosnia, could tell you. There are dangers in letting loose the dogs of war, always and everywhere, no argument. But there are also dangers in placating despots and in appeasement. You can go as badly wrong with peace as with war. This is possibly the saddest commentary on human history that I can state.
What has galled me for some time about the Demented Left is that it seems completely blind to this rather elementary analytical framework. The only way to think sensibly about the decisions as momentous as these is to make some rational, decently intelligent assumptions about the way history would unfold if there had been no invasion of Iraq, decide in some logical way which course of action produces the lesser evil, and come to the appropriate conclusion. If any member of the mainstream media ever did that, I'd respect the process, even if I disagreed with the analysis.
But that is not the way the war opponents behave. There is no comparison of alternatives, there is no attempt to judge whether the world is better or worse off for what happened five years ago. Instead - until recently, when the situation in Iraq began to up tick and the silence suddenly became deafening - there has been vehement, shrieking, hysterical denunciation - as if the evils of this course of action were the only evils, as if there were not serious and even greater risks in NOT acting. Of course, lives have been lost, of course there has been a huge human cost - and every one of those lives, every iota of that cost, matters. But that does not mean that the War was the greater evil. In the world that never came to be, the human cost, the loss of life, might have been incalculably greater.
I will descend to a loose analogy. An automobile designer has to make a decision as to where to put the gas tank - that is, the 12 plus gallon firebomb designed into every car. No matter where it is place, particular individuals are going to die because of the placement. If the cannister were only two inches forward (or back, or here or there), the worst sort of tort lawyer pontificates, that child would be alive. True enough - but there are numberless other children, not present in the courtroom, alive and well because the tank was place where it was. It requires a deliberate act of intuitive imagination to conjure them up - one that most of us can accomplish, given the cue and impetus.
Exactly the same sort of intuitive imagination is required to think clearly about Iraq. There are thousands of persons who are dead or maimed because the invasion took place. These we know, and count, and mourn. The issue is whether there are a much greater number of persons alive and well (or who will remain alive and well over the next few decades). This is the process the Demented Left deliberately refuses to undertake - for to do so implies that the War was one alternative among others, with costs and benefits that could be, and had to be, calculated. Admitting this prosaic fact would deprive it of its shrill, moralizing voice. That is the self-serving reason clear thought is anathema to it.
Being sensitive to the real human cost of the War does not mean melting into a pool of limpid, insipid sentimental pathos. A year or so back, I picked up a truly priceless book, "The New Yorker Book of War Pieces" (ISBN 00805209018). It is a collection of the real time journalism that appeared in the New Yorker between 1939 and 1945 - 'Letter from London', 'Letter from Paris', 'Letter from Warsaw', and so forth. These days the New Yorker is heavily politicized, but there is nothing political at all about these pieces. They are contemporary journalistic reports, written to describe in great depth the emotions and reactions of the people of those cities to events in real time. Neither the population they observed, nor the writers themselves, all of whom are very gifted, could know that Hitler would batter his army to pieces in the Soviet Union, that the United States would ultimately enter the war with decisive effect, that all would end happily - at least for the survivors. That real time ignorance is what makes the collection priceless.
What jumps out in the early pieces, written in London and Paris in the first two years of the war, is how frustrated the public in Western Europe was, that Western leadership had allowed the momentum of Nazi Germany to develop into such a towering, apparently irresistible, force by 1939. This of course is a historical cliché these days, but it is interesting to read it described by journalists who - beneath all their professionalism - were genuinely afraid, for themselves, for their friends, for their nations, for the world. The articles do not contained the studied judgment of history, but the real immediate anguish of intelligent people who agonized that the civilization they knew and loved might be endangered by the short-sightedness of English and French political leadership in the late 30's. They agonized, even though they did not know anything then of how barbaric the Nazi regime would actually prove to be.
Interesting reading - but to me it brought clearly to mind the essential temporal paradox in intuiting the direction of the path not taken. If the prime ministers of England and France (specifically Stanley Baldwin and your choice of one of five or six French heads of state) had reacted to Hitler's initial acts of aggression in 1935 with the force that everyone now agrees they should have, then the time track in which the wisdom of that use of force is clear would never come to be. The statesmen would not have been praised. They would have been vilified, attacked, denounced, damned. The temper of those times was even more pacifistic than these, and with more reason. Over one million students around the world signed a pledge not to bear arms for their country in 1935. The utterly senseless slaughters of the Great War, the true cause of most of the misery of the last Century, lay only two decades back in the past,
So the mainstream media of that day - the Keith Olbermans, Paul Krugmans, the editors of the New York Times - would almost certainly attacked that leadership with the same venomous hatred we see expressed these days. Hitler was no threat - he had disavowed the claims in Mein Kampf when he assumed power (which is true), his actions were only a fully justified attempt to rectify the imbalance of the Versailles Treaty (also true). Look at this needless loss of life - in the dozens, perhaps the hundreds! This unnecessary disorder! This leadership should be dismissed - or worse!
Yet the war that would have been dangerous to living things, did not commence in 1935, and a peace that proved to be far more dangerous continued. In 1940, the same intellectuals who would have sneered at an earlier, timely intervention, feared for the existence of their community and their lives, and denounced Baldwin, Chamberlain, and the others for their myopia. Such is it always on the editorial pages.
(I can't write like this article and duck the implicit challenge. It's my own belief that Bush and Blair chose the least of the evils, and here are the reasons. If there is no invasion of Iraq, the enlightened self-interest of both Hussein and Osama Bin Laden leads to Al Quaeda seeking sanctuary in Iraq, or some affiliated safe haven in the Mid East. There had been discussions between the factions as early as 1998 - their enmity was only skin deep. Bin Laden would retain his mythic, invulnerable status, Hussein would gain among fundamentalists by the alliance. They would also both be confident that they could act without any fear of consequence, because the West would once again have demonstrated its pusillanimity. Hussein would be free to continue seeking WMD, which he would have every chance of obtaining in an open ended time frame. He would have at his disposal a well-financed and intact distribution mechanism in Al Quaeda. The support the US has garnered for the war against terrorism would not be nearly so significant, because of its own failure to walk the walk.
The world, in short, would be a much more dangerous place than it is. Just one man's opinion - it may be wrong, but it is not irrational. I say this fully knowing how much this war has cost men and women who deserved much better from life. The fault lies with Saddam Hussein, Osama Bin Laden, and the others who preach and practice religious warfare. But a fat lot of good assigning blame does for dead soldiers. I will not dismiss our honored dead and the others as cannon fodder, necessary sacrifices. Yet I do believe they have not died in vain.)
Can it be that Bush and Blair are martyrs to a history that never happened? Saviors without honor in the land of might-have-been? I do believe it is certainly possible. For the reasons given above, I believe it is a fact. But I have to say that is only my belief. The automobile designer at least has collision studies, historical data, test runs. A policy maker has only insight, intelligence, and intuition. There are simply too many human and random factors involved to say with any definite certitude, with respect to a decision as far reaching as invading Iraq, which is better or worse. No responsible person can plausibly claim to know for sure. Like it or not, the debate has to end in some sort of conjecture.
But that said, it is possible to insist on rational assumptions, and a logical approach to the issue, rather than a simple reiteration of pre-existing value judgments. My complaint with the vast majority of war opponents is that they limit themselves to bemoaning the present situation, without even considering the thought that there were negatives in the alternatives. It is not that I disagree with their thinking. It is that they don't think at all.
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